The autumn hard vs soft landing puzzle
 
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September 2022
Marketing communication
For professional and qualified investors only
 
Important risks materially relevant to the Sub-Funds which are not adequately captured by the indicator: Liquidity risk, Counterparty risk, Operational risk, Capital risk, Currency risk, Equity risk, Country risk, Credit risk and Emerging Markets risk.
 
The autumn hard vs soft landing puzzle
More than six months into the Russia-Ukraine war, geopolitics keeps a central role in shaping both the macroeconomic and financial scenarios. The growth outlook has certainly darkened over the summer, with the risk of gas rationing in Europe, the China slowdown, and the technical recession in the US in the spotlight. Against this backdrop, our view is cautious on risky assets. Therefore, to cope with this environment, investors should adjust their asset allocation stances. In particular:

 In Equities, it’s time to reduce exposure and move more defensive. While a global recession can be avoided, after the recent rally, there are no elements supporting a positive stance in equity markets while risks are increasing. Regionally, we maintain our preference for the US vs Europe and for China.

In Fixed Income, we recommend a tactical approach to duration management and a focus on quality credit. Investors should also continue to consider inflation and floating rate notes strategies.
 
Monthly convictions
Source: Amundi. The table represents a cross-asset assessment on a 3- to 6-month horizon based on views expressed at the most recent global investment committee. The outlook, changes in outlook and opinions on the asset class assessment reflect the expected direction (+/-) and the strength of the conviction (+/++/+++). This assessment is subject to change.
 
EQUITY
Preference for US equities...
In the current market environment, even if the US economy is decelerating, it remains far more resilient than Europe. In particular, the stabilisation of real yields in the US, attractive valuations and a better environment for quality/growth markets are more supportive. In the road to green transition and the fight against climate change, further regulations and commitments to infrastructure investments and energy efficiency will support the narrative. Companies that have invested early in the low-carbon transition should benefit from this shift.
... and Chinese equities
We acknowledge that short-term challenges exist in the form of zero tolerance for Covid-19 and malaise in the housing sector. However, government policies and an accommodative central bank policy are positive for mid- to long-term investments.

AMUNDI MSCI CHINA ESG LEADERS SELECT UCITS ETF DR
0.35% OGC*

LYXOR MSCI CHINA UCITS ETF
0.29% OGC*

LYXOR MSCI CHINA A (DR) UCITS ETF
0.35% OGC*
Flight to quality
Given the current economic backdrop, investors should focus on quality stocks with appealing dividends, as the former tend to outperform growth stocks in a rising rates environment. High quality companies may be able to sustain earnings growth, which is key. Therefore, we suggest an exposure to quality.

LYXOR SG GLOBAL QUALITY INCOME NTR UCITS ETF
0.45% OGC*
 
FIXED INCOME
Neutral on duration
The ECB is committed to controlling inflation and is likely to raise rates higher than previously expected. However, it has to balance this with the need to prevent fragmentation. We are neutral on core Europe but flexible across curves. Even in peripheral debt, we are neutral amid the potential pressures from political events despite the ECB’s support.

AMUNDI PRIME EURO GOV BONDS 0-1Y - UCITS ETF DR
0.05% OGC*

LYXOR EURO GOVERNMENT BOND 3-5Y (DR) UCITS ETF
0.17% OGC*
Constructive on US IG corporate bonds
Despite the recent repricing our stance remains cautious, with a focus on liquidity and a preference for quality assets such as US IG corporate bonds. The US IG bonds market is showing strong corporate fundamentals, a better economic outlook vs. Europe and attractive valuations. It also shows the potential to stay resilient in case of a further deterioration in credit sentiment. However, it’s important to monitor the effects of inflation and CB policy on markets.

AMUNDI INDEX US CORP SRI - UCITS ETF DR
0.14% OGC*

LYXOR ESG USD CORPORATE BOND (DR) UCITS ETF
0.14% OGC*
 
 
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*Ongoing charges - annual, all taxes included. For Amundi ETF funds, the ongoing charges correspond to the Total Expense Ratio. The ongoing charges represent the charges taken from the fund over a year. When the fund has not closed its accounts for the first time, the ongoing charges are estimated. It compares the annual total management and operating costs (all taxes included) charged to a fund against the value of that fund’s assets. Transaction cost and commissions may occur when trading ETFs.

KNOWING YOUR RISK
It is important for potential investors to evaluate the risks described below and in the fund’s Key Investor Information Document (“KIID”) and prospectus available on our websites www.amundietf.com or www.lyxoretf.com (as the case may be).
CAPITAL AT RISK - ETFs are tracking instruments. Their risk profile is similar to a direct investment in the underlying index. Investors’ capital is fully at risk and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
UNDERLYING RISK - The underlying index of an ETF may be complex and volatile. For example, ETFs exposed to Emerging Markets carry a greater risk of potential loss than investment in Developed Markets as they are exposed to a wide range of unpredictable Emerging Market risks.
REPLICATION RISK - The fund’s objectives might not be reached due to unexpected events on the underlying markets which will impact the index calculation and the efficient fund replication.
COUNTERPARTY RISK - Investors are exposed to risks resulting from the use of an OTC swap (over-the-counter) or securities lending with the respective counterparty(-ies). Counterparty(-ies) are credit institution(s) whose name(s) can be found on the fund’s website amundietf.com or lyxoretf.com. In line with the UCITS guidelines, the exposure to the counterparty cannot exceed 10% of the total assets of the fund. 
CURRENCY RISK – An ETF may be exposed to currency risk if the ETF is denominated in a currency different to that of the underlying index securities it is tracking. This means that exchange rate fluctuations could have a negative or positive effect on returns.
LIQUIDITY RISK – There is a risk associated with the markets to which the ETF is exposed. The price and the value of investments are linked to the liquidity risk of the underlying index components. Investments can go up or down. In addition, on the secondary market liquidity is provided by registered market makers on the respective stock exchange where the ETF is listed. On exchange, liquidity may be limited as a result of a suspension in the underlying market represented by the underlying index tracked by the ETF; a failure in the systems of one of the relevant stock exchanges, or other market-maker systems; or an abnormal trading situation or event.
VOLATILITY RISK – The ETF is exposed to changes in the volatility patterns of the underlying index relevant markets. The ETF value can change rapidly and unpredictably, and potentially move in a large magnitude, up or down.
CONCENTRATION RISK – Thematic ETFs select stocks or bonds for their portfolio from the original benchmark index. Where selection rules are extensive, it can lead to a more concentrated portfolio where risk is spread over fewer stocks than the original benchmark.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This material is solely for the attention of professional and eligible counterparties, as defined in Directive MIF 2014/65/UE of the European Parliament acting solely and exclusively on their own account. It is not directed at retail clients. In Switzerland, it is solely for the attention of qualified investors within the meaning of Article 10 paragraph 3 a), b), c) and d) of the Federal Act on Collective Investment Scheme of June 23, 2006.
This information is not for distribution and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities or services in the United States or in any of its territories or possessions subject to its jurisdiction to or for the benefit of any U.S. Person (as defined in the prospectus of the Funds or in the legal mentions section on www.amundi.com and www.amundietf.com. The Funds have not been registered in the United States under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and units/shares of the Funds are not registered in the United States under the Securities Act of 1933.
This document is of a commercial nature. The funds described in this document (the “Funds”) may not be available to all investors and may not be registered for public distribution with the relevant authorities in all countries. It is each investor’s responsibility to ascertain that they are authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice.
This is a promotional and non-contractual information which should not be regarded as an investment advice or an investment recommendation, a solicitation of an investment, an offer or a purchase, from Amundi Asset Management (“Amundi”) nor any of her subsidiaries.
The Funds are Amundi UCITS ETFs. The Funds can either be denominated as “Amundi ETF” or “Lyxor ETF”.  Amundi ETF designates the ETF business of Amundi.
The Funds are French, Luxembourg or Irish open ended mutual investment funds respectively approved by the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers, the Luxembourg Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier or the Central Bank of Ireland, and authorised for marketing of their units or shares in various European countries (the Marketing Countries) pursuant to the article 93 of the 2009/65/EC Directive.
The Funds can be French Fonds Communs de Placement (FCPs) and also be sub-funds of the following umbrella structures:
For Amundi ETF: 
- Amundi Index Solutions, Luxembourg SICAV, RCS B206810, located 5, allée Scheffer, L-2520, managed by Amundi Luxembourg S.A.
- Amundi ETF ICAV: open-ended umbrella Irish collective asset-management vehicle established under the laws of Ireland and authorized for public distribution by the Central Bank of Ireland. The management company of the Fund is Amundi Ireland Limited, 1 George’s Quay Plaza, George’s Quay, Dublin 2, D02 V002, Ireland. Amundi Ireland Limited is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland
For Lyxor ETF:
- Multi Units France, French SICAV, RCS 441 298 163, located 91-93, boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris, France, managed by Amundi Asset Management
- Multi Units Luxembourg, RCS B115129 and Lyxor Index Fund, RCS B117500, both Luxembourg SICAV located 9, rue de Bitbourg, L-1273 Luxembourg, and managed by Amundi Asset Management
- Lyxor SICAV, Luxembourg SICAV, RCS B140772, located 5, Allée Scheffer, L-2520 Luxembourg, managed by Amundi Luxembourg S.A.
Before any subscriptions, the potential investor must read the offering documents (KIID and prospectus) of the Funds. The prospectus in French for French UCITS ETFs, and in English for Luxembourg UCITS ETFs and Irish UCITS ETFs, and the KIID in the local languages of the Marketing Countries are available free of charge on www.amundi.com, www.amundi.ie, www.amundietf.com or www.lyxoretf.com. They are also available from the headquarters of Amundi Luxembourg S.A. (as the management company of Amundi Index Solutions and Lyxor SICAV), or the headquarters of Amundi Asset Management (as the management company of Amundi ETF French FCPs,  Multi Units Luxembourg, Multi Units France and Lyxor Index Fund), or at the headquarters of Amundi Ireland Limited (as the management company of Amundi ETF ICAV).
Investment in a fund carries a substantial degree of risk (i.e. risks are detailed in the KIID and prospectus). Past Performance does not predict future returns. Investment return and the principal value of an investment in funds or other investment product may go up or down and may result in the loss of the amount originally invested.  All investors should seek professional advice prior to any investment decision, in order to determine the risks associated with the investment and its suitability.
It is the investor’s responsibility to make sure his/her investment is in compliance with the applicable laws she/he depends on, and to check if this investment is matching his/her investment objective with his/her patrimonial situation (including tax aspects 
Please note that the management companies of the Funds may de-notify arrangements made for marketing as regards units/shares of the Fund in a Member State of the EU in respect of which it has made a notification.
A summary of information about investors’ rights and collective redress mechanisms can be found in English on the regulatory page at https://about.amundi.com/Metanav-Footer/Footer/Quick-Links/Legal-documentation with respect to Amundi ETFs. 
This document was not reviewed, stamped or approved by any financial authority.
This document is not intended for and no reliance can be placed on this document by persons falling outside of these categories in the below mentioned jurisdictions. In jurisdictions other than those specified below, this document is for the sole use of the professional clients and intermediaries to whom it is addressed. It is not to be distributed to the public or to other third parties and the use of the information provided by anyone other than the addressee is not authorised.
This material is based on sources that Amundi and/or any of her subsidiaries consider to be reliable at the time of publication. Data, opinions and analysis may be changed without notice. Amundi and/or any of her subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material. Amundi and/or any of her subsidiaries can in no way be held responsible for any decision or investment made on the basis of information contained in this material.
Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.amundietf.com or www.lyxoretf.com. Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them.
Indices and the related trademarks used in this document are the intellectual property of index sponsors and/or its licensors. The indices are used under license from index sponsors. The Funds based on the indices are in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by index sponsors and/or its licensors and neither index sponsors nor its licensors shall have any liability with respect thereto. The indices referred to herein (the “Index” or the “Indices”) are neither sponsored, approved or sold by Amundi nor any of her subsidiaries. Neither Amundi nor any of her subsidiaries shall assume any responsibility in this respect. 
In EEA Member States, the content of this document is approved by Amundi for use with Professional Clients (as defined in EU Directive 2004/39/EC) only and shall not be distributed to the public. 
Information reputed exact as of the date mentioned above.
Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi. 

SPAIN
The Funds are foreign undertakings for collective investment registered with the CNMV. Luxembourg Funds were approved for public distribution in Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier of Luxembourg, French Funds were approved by the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and Irish Funds were approved by the Central Bank of Ireland.
For Amundi ETF: 
- Amundi ETF Funds approved by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier are numbered: Amundi Index Solutions (1495). Amundi Index Solutions is a Luxembourg SICAV, RCS B206810, located 5, allée Scheffer, L-2520 Luxembourg. 
- Amundi ETF Funds approved by the Central Bank of Ireland are numbered: Amundi ETF ICAV. Amundi ETF ICAV is an Irish ICAV located 1 George’s Quay Plaza, George’s Quay, Dublin 2, D02 V002, Ireland.
- French FCPs approved by the Autorités des Marchés Financiers
For Lyxor ETF: 
- Lyxor ETF Funds approved by the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers are numbered: Multi Units France (319). Multi Units France is a French SICAV, RCS 441 298 163, located 91-93, boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris, France. 
- Lyxor ETF Funds approved by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier are numbered:
- Multi Units Luxembourg (920), RCS B115129 and Lyxor Index Fund (760), RCS B117500, both located 28-32, place de la Gare, L-1616 Luxembourg, and
- Lyxor SICAV, RCS B140772, located 5, Allée Scheffer, L-2520 Luxembourg.
Information and documents are available on www.amundi.com, www.amundietf.com or www.lyxoretf.com. They are also available from the headquarters of Amundi Luxembourg S.A. (as the management company of Amundi Index Solutions and Lyxor SICAV), or the headquarters of Amundi Asset Management (as the management company of French FCPs, Multi Units Luxembourg, Multi Units France and Lyxor Index Fund), or at the headquarters of Amundi Ireland Limited (as the management company of Amundi ETF ICAV).
Any investment in the Funds must be made through a registered Spanish distributor. Amundi Iberia SGIIC, SAU, is the main distributor of the Funds in Spain, registered with number 31 in the CNMV's SGIIC registry, with address at Pº de la Castellana 1, Madrid 28046, Spain. A list of all Spanish distributors may be obtained from the CNMV at www.cnmv.es. Units/shares may only be acquired on the basis of the most recent prospectus, key investor information document and further current documentation, which may be obtained from the CNMV.
The legal documentation of the Funds is also available on the web page www.amundi.com, www.amundietf.com or www.lyxoretf.com.

SWITZERLAND
This document is for qualified investors (as defined in Swiss Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes of 23 June 2006 as amended or supplemented) use only and shall not be offered to the public. 
For Amundi ETF: The Representative and Paying Agent for Funds registered for public offering in Switzerland is for Amundi Index Solutions SICAV and for Amundi ETF ICAV: Representative - CACEIS (Switzerland) SA and Paying Agent, CACEIS Bank, Nyon Branch both at 35 Route de Signy, Case postale 2259, CH-1260 Nyon. Free copies of the prospectus, key investor information documents, annual and semi-annual reports, management regulations and other information are available at the representative’s address shown above. 
For Lyxor ETF: The Representative and the Paying Agent of the Fund(s) in Switzerland is Société Générale, Paris, Zurich Branch, Talacker 50, CH-8001 Zurich. The prospectus or offering memorandum, the key investor information documents, the management regulation, the articles of association and/or any other constitutional documents as well as the annual and semi-annual financial reports may be obtained free of charge from the Representative in Switzerland. The prospectus, the key investor information documents, the articles of association and/or the annual reports may be obtained free of charge from the Representative in Switzerland.

SWEDEN
Some of the Funds have been passported into Sweden pursuant to the Swedish Securities Funds Act (as amended) (Sw. lag (2004:46) om värdepappersfonder), implementing the UCITS IV Directive and may accordingly be distributed to Swedish investors. The Key Investor Information Document (“KIID”) (in Swedish) and the prospectuses for the funds, as well as the annual and semi-annual reports are also available from the Swedish paying agent free of charge. 
For Amundi ETF and Lyxor ETF: The name and details of the Swedish paying agent are Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) through its entity Transaction Banking, SEB Merchant Banking, with its principal offices at Kungsträdgårdsgatan 8, SE-106 40 Stockholm, Sweden.

DENMARK
For Amundi ETF: The regulatory documentation of the Funds registered for public marketing in Denmark are available free of charge, as printed copies, from Deloitte Tax & Consulting, established and having its registered office at 20 boulevard Kockelscheuer, L-1821 Luxembourg, which acts as a facilities agent, and at www.amundietf.com
For Lyxor ETF: The regulatory documentation of the Funds registered for public marketing in Denmark are available at www.lyxoretf.com.

GDPR
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